2023: a Year of Changes for London’s Migrant Population

London and migration

London is a city built on migration. It has the largest number of migrants among all regions of the UK. In the year ending June 2021, about half of the UK’s foreign-born population (48% in total) were either in London (35% – 3,346,000) or the Southeast (13% – 1,286,000). Migration boosts London’s economy. According to a 2017 PwC report, there were 1.8m migrant workers in the city and on average, each contributed a net additional £46,000 in Gross Value Added (GVA) per annum to London’s economy, making a total contribution is around £83bn – 22% of London’s GVA per annum.

Any changes to immigration policy will affect many Londoners, as happened last year with the introduction of several new visas, the closure of others and revamps of existing visa routes. 2023 promises to be a year of consolidation where the visa application and management process continues to be fine-tuned and digitised, making it easier to use and navigate for businesses and individuals.

Meanwhile, some political tinkering with the system should still be expected as the government attempts to stick to its 2019 manifesto promise to reduce net migration, without damaging business.

Here are the changes which will affect the London migrant population in 2023 and my predictions for some of the measures that may be introduced.

Changes to the immigration system in 2023

Family routes and paths to settlement will be simplified making it easier for those who qualify to gain the correct paperwork and permissions, however, there could be a tightening of the criteria for certain spouse visas, particularly for those accompanying people on student visas.
Digitisation will increasingly be introduced in the system to reduce the number of queries from customers. UKVI is developing chatbot and voice bot functionality which it plans to launch in 2023, ‘giving customers the means to resolve their queries effectively, without needing to wait to speak to an agent’.
Better storage and use of biometric information will mean data already held by the Home Office can be used for different applications, negating the need for candidates to supply fingerprints if they switch visa routes or renew existing visas.
Customers applying through the points-based system now have a digital customer account to access their eVisa and relevant information about their rights and entitlements. During 2023 there will be further improvements to the digital customer account, including more seamless integration and more intuitive navigation between government services.
Customers with existing immigration status will be encouraged and helped to convert to an eVisa, providing access to online account features and services.
The number of customer service agents within UKVI will be increased to keep up with demand.
Efforts will be made to reduce the time it takes to process sponsor licence applications to reduce the time it takes a sponsor to hire a worker from overseas. Priority will be given to urgent short-term labour issues as they arise.
Existing sponsors will have the ability to invite a worker to make their visa application once role details have been approved.
The online management system for all sponsors will be improved, allowing sponsors to make changes such as adding users to their licence.
A Permission to Travel scheme will be introduced. Everyone wishing to travel to the UK will need permission in advance of travel. Those without permission will not be able to travel to the UK.
The number of e-Gates at ports of entry will be increased and individuals who already have immigration permission, such as people with Indefinite Leave to Remain, or Student Visas will be able to use them.

Immigration predictions for 2023

The government is expected to introduce new measures to reduce the number of legal migrants coming into the UK.

Expect to see a tightening of the rules around student visas and restrictions on how many family members the students can bring into the country with them. In an effort to reduce the number of international students in the UK, the Government may restrict the type of subject and course which qualifies for a visa or introduce a list of qualifying universities.
The minimum salary that must be paid by companies employing skilled workers from overseas could increase. Some experts argue this would discourage businesses from employing migrants on lower wages.
The minimum income threshold for British citizens applying for a family visa could also be increased. At present, a couple must earn at least £18,600. An increase in the threshold would make the UK a more expensive and less attractive place to settle, particularly for those with children.