A new World Bank Group outlook projects that overall global commodity prices will rise by 23% in 2026, after a period in which energy, food and industrial-material markets have been shaped by conflict, shipping disruption and weather risk.
The projection is a forecast rather than a measure of prices already paid by households or businesses. It is based on a baseline assumption that conflicts affecting global commodity supplies do not intensify further. That assumption matters: the outlook sets out a much more difficult path if several existing risks worsen at the same time.
Energy at the centre of the forecast
Energy prices are projected to rise by 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines. Brent crude is expected to average $91 a barrel across the year, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027. These are annual forecasts, not a promise of a particular price on any trading day.
The outlook links the pressure on energy markets to reduced oil inventories and a supply outlook that remains exposed to further disruption. Global oil supply is projected to fall by 5.2% in 2026, while consumption is expected to decline by 2.5%. Even with weaker demand, production is projected to remain below consumption, leaving stocks more vulnerable to another supply shock.
Higher energy costs can move through the economy in several ways. Transport, manufacturing and farming often depend on fuel, while fertiliser and shipping costs can influence the price of goods before they reach shops or factories. The scale and timing of any effect will vary between countries, currencies and supply chains.
Food, fertiliser and metals all face pressure
Food commodity prices are projected to rise by about 10% in 2026 and by a further 7% in 2027, a cumulative increase of 18% across the two years. The outlook identifies disrupted grain shipments, risks to harvests from El Niño and higher fuel and fertiliser costs as important factors in that baseline.
Fertiliser prices are forecast to rise by 14% in 2026 before returning to their 2025 level in 2027. That is relevant well beyond fertiliser producers, because input costs can affect planting decisions and farm margins. It does not mean every crop, country or retail food price will follow the same pattern.
Industrial metals are also expected to reach a new high in 2026, with prices projected to rise by 25%. Strong demand associated with renewable-energy investment, electric vehicles and data centres is expected to coincide with supply disruption. Precious metals are projected to rise by 40% as demand for assets seen as safer stores of value remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
A forecast with a more severe alternative
The baseline forecast depends on conflicts affecting commodity supplies not becoming more severe. The outlook identifies several risks that could change the result: escalation in the Middle East, continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure, further attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño.
In an adverse scenario where those pressures occur together, Brent could average $105 a barrel in 2027 and food commodity prices could be 12% higher than the baseline forecast. Those figures describe a risk scenario, not the central expectation and not an outcome that has already occurred.
The overall forecast has implications for inflation, food affordability and economic growth, particularly in lower-income countries that have limited room to absorb higher import costs. Yet projections are conditional assessments, not guarantees. Changes in conflict, weather, production, demand, inventories and policy can all alter the path of commodity markets.
For now, the central development is the scale of the forecast: a broad projected increase across energy, food and metals after years of divergent price movements. The outlook points to a 7% decline in overall commodity prices in 2027, but that easing is also contingent on the risks now identified not becoming more acute.
