The Philippines’ weather agency says a very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, warning that much of the country is likely to receive less rain than normal in November.
In a statement dated 4 November, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, known as PAGASA, said the event could peak by the end of 2026 and was expected to persist into the first half of 2027. Both the timing of the peak and the duration remain forecasts.
The agency’s latest assessment found that five Philippine provinces experienced meteorological drought during October. A further 11 were classified as experiencing a dry spell and 10 had dry conditions. The figures describe rainfall conditions in October; they do not mean that the same provinces will necessarily remain in those categories throughout November.
What the rainfall categories mean
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring Pacific climate pattern. It is associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and can alter rainfall patterns far beyond the ocean. In the Philippines it increases the likelihood of rainfall deficits, although the effects vary between places.
PAGASA measures meteorological drought through sustained departures from a location’s normal rainfall. Its definition includes three consecutive months of rainfall more than 60 per cent below normal, or five consecutive months with rainfall between 21 and 60 per cent below normal.
A dry spell can be declared after three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, or two months of rainfall more than 60 per cent below normal. These are rainfall-based classifications. They do not by themselves measure every household’s access to water or the full extent of crop losses.
The latest statement expects below-normal to well-below-normal rainfall over most of the country in November, with warmer-than-average mean air temperatures also likely in most areas. Several provinces could be in drought or experiencing dry spells by the end of the month.
A longer outlook
An earlier PAGASA outlook issued on 21 October identified 12 areas that could experience drought by the end of November. They include Albay and Camarines Sur in Luzon, Capiz and Leyte in the Visayas, and Misamis Oriental and the City of Isabela in Mindanao. The agency’s longer-range table projected drought across 87 assessed areas by the end of March 2027.
That table is a forecast based on rainfall observations and projections available when it was prepared, not a count of places already in drought. The areas in the table include a city and other administrative areas as well as provinces. The outlook can change as new observations and forecasts become available.
The October outlook had already described strong to very strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific. The 4 November statement describes the event specifically as very strong. It is not evidence that the weather pattern began on the date of the statement.
Less rainfall over a season also does not rule out dangerous rain on individual days. PAGASA cautioned that tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing systems could still bring episodes of heavy rainfall. Communities therefore need to consider local weather warnings alongside the longer-range drought outlook.
Pressure on farming and water
The agriculture department reported on 21 October that El Niño had caused an estimated 8.57 billion Philippine pesos in agricultural damage and losses during the year, affecting more than 288,000 farmers. It said the assessment was subject to validation. Corn accounted for 5 billion pesos of the estimated losses and rice for 2.95 billion.
In a separate assessment covering conditions up to 3 November, the Office of Civil Defense said about 742,000 people in six regions had been affected by prolonged dry conditions. That wider population figure is not directly comparable with the department’s count of affected farmers.
The agriculture department has described measures including purchases of farm inputs and cloud-seeding operations in drought-hit areas where suitable clouds are available. It also reported providing seeds, fertilisers and other production support. Those measures are intended to limit the impact; they do not establish that future losses have been prevented.
PAGASA has urged the public and relevant agencies to conserve water and manage supplies efficiently. Its warning is both an assessment of conditions already recorded and a prompt to prepare for a range of possible outcomes as the El Niño episode develops.
Featured image: AI-generated illustration.
