More than four million children in Afghanistan are projected to need treatment for acute malnutrition during 2027, including about 1.09 million expected to face severe acute malnutrition. A new national assessment sets out the projected treatment needs. The figures describe anticipated need over the year, not the number of children currently receiving treatment.
The assessment estimates that 4.04 million children aged six to 59 months will require treatment between January and December 2027. Nearly 2.95 million are projected to have moderate acute malnutrition. It also estimates that around 1.27 million pregnant and breastfeeding women will need treatment for malnutrition during the same period.
The outlook marks a further deterioration in a country already experiencing high levels of acute malnutrition. The assessment records the August-to-October 2026 period as the seasonal peak and says levels in that period are at their highest recorded in the analysis. It projects that 14 provinces will face critical levels of acute malnutrition in 2027, compared with 10 in 2026 and seven in 2025.
A forecast, not a current caseload
The 2027 total is a projection of children who may require treatment across the year. It should not be read as a count of children already diagnosed, admitted to clinics or waiting for care. Nor does the projection mean every child will experience the same severity: the estimate separates severe and moderate acute malnutrition, with the severe category forecast to rise by 16 per cent from 2026.
The assessment covers children aged six to 59 months. That age range matters when interpreting the headline figure: it is not a count of all children in Afghanistan, and it is not a measure of all forms of undernutrition. The estimate for pregnant and breastfeeding women is reported separately.
Why needs may rise
Several pressures are identified behind the worsening outlook. Many households struggle to obtain nutritious food and safe water, while childhood illnesses, including diarrhoeal disease and measles, can increase the risks associated with poor nutrition. Limited diets are another concern: only about one in three children aged six to 24 months is currently receiving the combination of nutritious foods needed for healthy growth.
Nearly half of households are reported to have difficulty accessing adequate, safe water. Poor water and sanitation conditions can expose children to infections that make it harder to maintain good nutritional health. The assessment also points to disruption in cross-border supplies of essential nutrition commodities, which can delay access to treatment.
Seasonal factors are part of the outlook, alongside the prospect of a funding shortfall. If preventive services are reduced or treatment programmes disrupted, families may find it harder to get support early. The projection does not establish that any particular service will close; it highlights the risk that diminished funding could restrict the response.
Pressure on prevention and treatment
The figures underline the importance of both identifying acute malnutrition early and making treatment available. Severe acute malnutrition can put children at greater risk of illness and developmental harm, and can be life-threatening without care. Prevention also depends on services beyond nutrition clinics, including health support, safe water, sanitation and help for livelihoods.
The assessment’s provincial picture suggests that the challenge is spread across a growing part of the country, rather than confined to a single area. Fourteen provinces projected to reach critical levels would be more than one-third of Afghanistan’s provinces. The figures are planning estimates to guide preparation; conditions can change, and the projection is not a guarantee of what will happen in every province.
With the 2027 outlook now set out, the central concern is whether families will be able to access adequate food, clean water and timely care as needs rise. The forecast points to a large treatment requirement, while also showing how prevention and reliable supplies could shape the pressure on services.
