An annual assessment of Earth’s climate system says seven of 16 tracked indicators have reached record extremes, while several others show signs of acceleration or abrupt change. The peer-reviewed 2026 State of the Climate report also describes rapid growth in renewable electricity and battery storage, but says progress remains too slow to stabilise the climate.
The update, published online on 14 October, brings together indicators covering greenhouse gases, temperature, oceans, ice, the planet’s energy balance and wildfire, alongside measures of human activity. Its authors describe the findings as evidence of mounting instability and warn that interacting changes could raise the risk of crossing critical tipping points. These are assessments of trends and risks, not a prediction that any particular system will abruptly pass such a threshold.
Greenhouse gases and ice reach extremes
Using year-to-date averages, the authors report that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide were each at record levels in 2026. They put carbon dioxide above 428 parts per million in May, around 50 per cent above pre-industrial levels. The measurements cover only part of the year; they should not be read as a final annual average.
Glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass were also at record lows in the report’s indicator set. It says the Greenland ice sheet has experienced repeated intense melt episodes in recent decades, contributing to a sixfold increase in extreme summer meltwater volume. Arctic sea-ice minimum extent and Antarctic ice-mass change were described as near, rather than at, record extremes.
The researchers say global ocean heat content and sea level were at record highs, while explicitly qualifying these readings as based on preliminary data. The paper links ocean warming with thermal expansion of seawater, which it estimates accounted for about 56 per cent of observed global sea-level rise in recent decades. That proportion is a synthesis of earlier research cited in the assessment, not a measurement of the share of sea-level rise in 2026 alone.
Emissions remain high as clean power expands
The report’s account of energy presents a mixed picture. Fossil-fuel consumption rose by 0.9 per cent in 2025, with oil, coal and gas each reaching record levels; energy-related carbon dioxide emissions exceeded 41 gigatonnes for the first time, the authors say. Solar and wind energy consumption increased by about 18 per cent that year, but the paper says rising overall demand meant this growth did not displace fossil-fuel use.
At the same time, the researchers note that low-carbon sources supplied roughly 43 per cent of global electricity in 2025, and that renewable generation surpassed coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in more than a century of coal-dominated generation. They present this as an encouraging transition signal, not evidence that the climate problem has been solved. Progress, the paper says, remains far below the pace and scale needed to stabilise the system.
Fire-related global tree-cover loss reached 10.8 million hectares in 2025, the third-highest level recorded in the series. The authors discuss wildfire both as a climate-related impact and a source of emissions, while recognising that fire trends vary by region and are influenced by more than one factor.
Some near-term claims remain conditional
The paper also points to a very strong El Niño expected to develop in early autumn 2026. It says this could add substantial warming and put the year on course to be among the hottest on record. That is a conditional outlook, not a confirmed outcome; the report’s other headline figures include observations from different periods and data sources.
The annual update is intended to track changes over time rather than provide a single forecast. Its authors call for rapid emissions cuts, adaptation, ecosystem protection and wider societal change. They also stress that renewable expansion and storage offer opportunities, while current gains have not yet reversed the rise in fossil-fuel consumption. The distinction matters: the report documents a set of serious indicators and possible risks, alongside signs of transition, without claiming that future outcomes are predetermined.
