Research from Google Research and others suggests that sufficiently advanced quantum computers could, in theory, challenge current cryptographic systems. Some researchers believe such systems could emerge within the next decade, though timelines remain uncertain.
According to Reuters, Microsoft and others are actively investing in quantum computing development, while progress is accelerating, most experts still view large-scale cryptographic risk as a longer-term concern. Other companies developing quantum infrastructure are also accelerating their efforts. The mid-April rally, sparked by the release of the Nvidia Ising AI model, has reinforced the market’s belief that the systems are moving from experimental labs to commercial data centres, placing related companies among the top stock gainers.
For now, Bitcoin is not facing an immediate security crisis, but in a future scenario, attackers could potentially derive private keys from exposed public keys, allowing unauthorised transactions. In such a scenario, attackers could potentially create valid-looking digital signatures and then transfer coins from vulnerable wallets, particularly older addresses, or those where public keys have been reused or disclosed.
Specifically, Google states that the “cost” that a hacker would have to pay to execute a quantum attack on the elliptic curve cryptography may actually be lower than previously anticipated. Some theoretical models suggest attacks could be executed rapidly using advanced, error-corrected quantum systems, though such hardware does not yet exist.
Bitcoin employs digital signatures to validate ownership. When (and if) a quantum computer can successfully reverse-engineer a user’s private key using their public key, the threat is not to the “entire blockchain” at once, but to specific, high-risk wallets. According to the white paper, some estimates suggest millions of BTC could be theoretically exposed under certain conditions. These typically include addresses where the public key is already visible on-chain or those that have been used multiple times.
The paper clearly differentiates between mining and signature threats. Quantum attacks on PoW (Proof-Of-Work) are unlikely to be viable for the next few decades, and they even refer to “quantum mining” at the present time as “more science fiction than real threat.” The primary risk stems from signatures — the proof of ownership — rather than the daily operations of the network.
It is important to distinguish between theoretical capability and real-world deployment, as current quantum systems remain far below the scale required to pose a practical threat.
Therefore, the health of the Bitcoin Network is not fated for collapse, provided institutions take preventative measures. And they are already doing it. NIST has issued post-quantum standards, and major technology companies are beginning to offer compliant tools. For example, The United Kingdom’s National Cyber Security Centre has outlined milestones for 2028, 2031, and 2035, while Google Cloud KMS has documented PQC digital signatures including ML-DSA and SLH-DSA. These are examples of how the security infrastructure that will serve as the foundational building block for future quantum migrations is already being developed.
As for Bitcoin specifically, early-stage proposals such as BIP-360 aim to explore ways of reducing certain exposure risks. BIP-360 is a draft proposal for creating a new output format referred to as Pay-to-Merkle-Root, intended to eliminate one of the primary pathways for long-exposure quantum attacks. That said, while BIP-360 removes one pathway, full protection against fast-moving quantum attacks will likely require true post-quantum signatures.
In summary, for now, Bitcoin remains secure under current technological conditions. However, the long-term security risks are real and require years of preparation. While standards, guidelines, and preliminary technical proposals exist, the transition will be difficult, slow, and contentious. Why? Because it affects users’ wallets, custodianship, UX, costs, and protocol governance.
In the short term, there is a reputational risk associated with transitioning to quantum computing. There will undoubtedly be additional research published in the coming months highlighting similar types of vulnerabilities — not only in crypto. It will be interesting to watch how the Bitcoin price reacts and whether any type of correlation emerges — perhaps a quantum one.
