South-East Asian leaders have opened their annual summit in Manila, beginning three days of regional meetings against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, rising energy costs and disputes over security.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared the 49th Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit open on 15 November. The Philippines is chairing the 11-member grouping this year and will host further meetings with outside partners through 17 November.
In his opening address, Marcos said geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, new technologies, climate change and transnational threats were reshaping the region faster than any one country could respond alone. He called for regional cooperation, pointing to work on trade links and the digital economy among the year’s priorities.
The opening marks the start of the leaders’ gathering, not its conclusion. Further discussions are planned over the next two days, and a summit agenda is not itself evidence that participants have reached new agreements on the issues before them.
Trade pressures on the region
The meetings come as South-East Asian economies consider the implications of changes in United States trade policy. In July, the US announced duties of 10 or 12.5 per cent on goods from 60 trading partners following investigations into their measures against imports made with forced labour. Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia were among the economies identified for the 10 per cent rate. Some products were exempted, so the announced measures should not be read as a single tariff applied to every shipment.
Trade between the US and ASEAN is substantial. US imports of goods from the group reached $453.6 billion in 2025, an increase of 29.2 per cent on the previous year. The US goods trade deficit with ASEAN was $327.4 billion. These figures cover goods rather than the wider exchange of both goods and services.
The scale of that relationship helps explain why uncertainty about tariffs matters to exporters and their customers. The effect of any particular measure depends on the product, its origin and the rules that apply to it. The figures for 2025 do not show how much of the region’s trade will be affected by any later tariff.
Leaders are also seeking closer economic links within the region. An ASEAN digital economy framework was signed in Manila on 14 November, before the leaders’ summit opened. It covers matters including electronic trade, digital payments, data protection and cross-border data flows. Putting a framework into practice is a separate task from signing it, and the agreement has not yet entered into force.
Economic ministers have also made progress towards a substantial conclusion of free-trade negotiations with Canada. Full conclusion and signing remain planned for 2027; the progress described before the summit is not a completed trade deal.
Energy and regional security
Higher fuel costs are another concern for countries that rely on imported energy. The effects of conflict in the Middle East have featured in preparations for the meetings, alongside efforts to strengthen regional energy security. A proposal for a shared oil stockpile remains under study rather than being an operating regional reserve.
Marcos told the opening ceremony that developments in the Middle East earlier in the year had placed ASEAN nationals at risk and disrupted transport, energy and food supplies. He said the countries had chosen to come together to respond rather than postpone their earlier summit in Cebu.
Leaders are also expected to consider the situation in Myanmar and long-running disputes in the South China Sea. Myanmar remains an ASEAN member, but its leader and foreign minister have been excluded from high-level ASEAN meetings over the government’s failure to comply fully with a regional peace plan adopted after the 2021 coup. ASEAN’s five-point consensus calls for an end to violence, dialogue and humanitarian assistance; leaders are due to review its implementation.
On the South China Sea, negotiations with China on a code of conduct have continued for years. The discussions in Manila should not be mistaken for a settled code or a resolution of the competing territorial claims.
Meetings with outside partners
The summit programme extends beyond talks among ASEAN members. The Philippines has scheduled meetings with partners including Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Nations and the United States on 16 and 17 November.
US President Donald Trump is expected in Manila on 17 November for meetings including a special summit with ASEAN leaders. China is expected to be represented by Premier Li Qiang. The Philippines plans to hand the association’s rotating chairmanship to Singapore at the closing of the meetings.
For now, the leaders have opened the gathering and set out the challenges they intend to address. Any new joint position or practical commitment will depend on the discussions and the documents issued as the meetings proceed.
