Hammersmith & Fulham is considering a scenario in which its own council-tax charge would rise by 150% in 2027/28, according to a finance report due to go before the borough’s cabinet. The figure is a modelling assumption, not a tax rise that has been agreed.
The report sets out how the borough might close a projected budget gap if the Government’s new funding arrangements proceed on current assumptions. It says a 150% increase in the council’s element of a Band D bill would take that element to £2,522.50 a year. The Greater London Authority precept is separate, so the figure should not be read as a household’s whole council-tax bill.
For a Band D household, the proposed increase in the council element would be £29.11 a week. The report describes that option as one that would broadly balance the budget on its current assumptions. It does not mean that residents have been told they will pay that amount, or that the cabinet has selected it.
Three scenarios, not a settled policy
The 150% option is the highest of three examples in the report. A 100% increase would set the council’s Band D element at £2,018 a year, but would still leave a £46.1m shortfall. A 125% increase, taking the element to £2,270.25, would leave a £20.6m gap. Those two examples would add £19.40 and £24.25 a week respectively for a Band D household.
Under the 150% model, the council estimates additional income of £163.9m by 2030/31. That is why it says the scenario broadly balances the budget. The wording matters: the calculation depends on current funding, costs and other planning assumptions. It is not a guarantee of a future balanced budget, nor an announcement that services, savings or bills will take one fixed form.
There may also be choices beyond the three illustrations. The council has indicated it will look for savings and is preparing to ask residents for their views on council tax and possible service reductions. The forthcoming cabinet consideration is therefore part of budget preparation, rather than the final local-government decision required to set a charge.
Funding change behind the projections
The pressure described in the report follows the Government’s revised local-authority funding formula. Hammersmith & Fulham says the changes are intended to redirect funding and would have a particularly large effect on central London boroughs with historically lower council tax.
The report projects government funding falling from £150.5m in 2025/26 to £72.4m by 2030/31. The council has previously said the wider effect of the new arrangements could be equivalent to as much as 40% of its £222m annual budget, although that was a maximum scenario rather than a confirmed loss. Rising demand and the cost of essential services are also part of the budget challenge it identifies.
Hammersmith & Fulham is among six authorities allowed to raise council tax above the normal 5% cap while they address the effects of the settlement. That flexibility permits consideration of larger rises; it does not compel one, and does not remove the need for the council to take its own formal decisions.
What the report does and does not decide
The new modelling gives residents a more specific picture of the scale of increase being examined for 2027/28 than the council’s earlier warning about potential funding losses. It places a weekly and annual Band D illustration alongside the projected shortfalls, making the trade-off between revenue and the remaining gap more concrete.
But the central outcome remains undecided. No 150% increase has been adopted, no final service-reduction package has been approved and the council’s charge cannot be inferred from a scenario in a cabinet report. Future funding decisions by central government, the council’s own savings work and the planned public engagement could all affect the eventual budget.
For now, the report is an early warning of the options being tested against a difficult financial outlook. Its significance lies in the fact that the 150% model is the first published scenario said to broadly close the gap under the assumptions used, not in the creation of a new tax bill for residents.
