Rising heat stress in the workplace could reduce working time in Sri Lanka and the Maldives by the equivalent of about 147,000 full-time jobs by 2040, new studies estimate. The projected losses would occur even under the low-emissions pathway used in the modelling.
The estimates put Sri Lanka’s loss at about 145,000 full-time job equivalents and the Maldives’ at around 2,400 in 2040. These figures describe the scale of working time that could be lost to heat stress, rather than a prediction that the same number of people will lose their jobs.
The distinction is important when interpreting the headline total. A job-equivalent estimate expresses lost working time in terms of full-time employment. It does not establish how that loss would be distributed among individual workers or workplaces, or amount to a forecast of redundancies.
The studies also estimate combined annual gross domestic product losses of about US$26.6 billion under the same pathway. That comprises around US$26 billion for Sri Lanka and US$576 million for the Maldives, measured against the historical reference period.
Both the economic and working-time figures are conditional model estimates for 2040. They are not observed losses for that year, and the low-emissions pathway is part of the conditions underpinning them. The findings therefore describe a potential burden under the scenario examined, rather than a settled future outcome.
Different sectors face the strain
In Sri Lanka, agriculture is identified as the sector most affected by workplace heat stress. Services, manufacturing and construction follow. For the Maldives, services and construction are the sectors named as affected in the findings.
The sectoral picture gives the projections a more specific focus than the national totals alone. The largest identified exposure in Sri Lanka lies in agriculture, while services and construction feature in both countries. The supplied estimates do not break the national job-equivalent totals down into separate figures for each sector.
The studies also identify an existing effect, rather than only a future risk. Climate-change-related heat stress had already increased working-time and GDP losses in 2023 compared with the historical reference period of 1985–2014.
That comparison is separate from the projections for 2040. The 2023 finding concerns an increase in losses relative to the reference period, while the future figures estimate what workplace heat stress could mean under the cited emissions pathway. The two timeframes should not be treated as interchangeable.
Protection measures proposed
Proposed responses include shifting working hours and introducing work-rest cycles, alongside access to shade, hydration and cooling. Heat monitoring and stronger occupational-safety standards are also among the measures put forward.
The proposals address both the organisation of work and conditions in the workplace. Changes to hours and rest cycles concern when work is carried out and when breaks are taken; shade, hydration and cooling concern the protections available during the working day.
These are recommended measures, not confirmed changes across either country. The findings do not establish that the proposals have been implemented, or quantify how much of the projected working-time or GDP loss each measure could prevent.
The central finding remains that a low-emissions pathway does not remove the modelled risk of substantial workplace heat losses in Sri Lanka and the Maldives by 2040. The job-equivalent totals convey the projected scale of lost working time, while the GDP estimates describe a related economic cost against the historical benchmark. Both require their scenario and date framing to remain clear.
