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Mexico reports rise in federal receipts through September amid mixed public-finance picture

Mexico reports rise in federal receipts through September amid mixed public-finance picture

Mexico’s federal-government receipts reached a preliminary 4.8136 trillion pesos in January–September 2026, with the tax authority putting the nominal increase from a year earlier at 180.31 billion pesos. The rise sits alongside a more mixed public-finance picture: a broader measure of public-sector budget revenue fell when adjusted for inflation.

The figures cover different accounting scopes and cannot be treated as interchangeable measures of government income. The federal-government receipts total describes a narrower series than the ministry’s public-sector budget-revenue figure. Their annual comparisons also need to be distinguished, because an increase in nominal pesos is not the same as growth in real terms.

Tax receipts rise in nominal terms

The tax authority said tax revenue totalled 4.2926 trillion pesos over the first nine months of the year. That represented a nominal increase of 185.313 billion pesos against the same period a year earlier. Both the total and the increase remain preliminary figures, rather than final accounts for the year.

Income tax accounted for 2.2055 trillion pesos, making it the largest of the three tax categories detailed in the figures. VAT brought in 1.3358 trillion pesos, while the special production-and-services tax generated 502.906 billion pesos. Those amounts describe the receipts recorded under each category during the January–September period.

The category totals show the scale of the main tax streams, but do not by themselves establish how much each contributed to the annual increase. Separate year-earlier comparisons for those individual categories are not given here. Nor does the overall nominal rise establish a cause for the change in receipts.

The tax-revenue increase of 185.313 billion pesos was larger than the 180.31 billion-peso increase in total federal-government receipts. These are distinct measures: the overall receipts figure should not be presented as if it were solely a tax-revenue total. The figures do not support a more detailed explanation of the difference between those increases.

Broader revenue falls after inflation

The ministry put broader public-sector budget revenue at 6.3045 trillion pesos for January–September. It said that series was down 2.8% in real annual terms. In the same broader public-finance context, tax revenue rose 0.7% in real terms, showing that the tax measure and the overall budget-revenue measure moved in different directions after inflation was taken into account.

Nominal comparisons measure the change in the number of pesos received. Real comparisons adjust for inflation, allowing the annual movement to be assessed on a different basis. A nominal increase can therefore coexist with a weaker inflation-adjusted performance, without the two statements necessarily contradicting one another.

That distinction is central to these preliminary figures. The tax authority’s 180.31 billion-peso rise is a nominal comparison for federal-government receipts. The ministry’s 2.8% decline is a real comparison for broader public-sector budget revenue. Combining them into a single claim about revenue growth would obscure both the accounting boundary and the basis of measurement.

The 4.8136 trillion-peso and 6.3045 trillion-peso totals should likewise remain separate. The larger amount does not revise or replace the smaller one: it belongs to a broader revenue series. Neither total should be used as a substitute for the other when describing the first nine months of the year.

The picture through September is therefore one of higher nominal federal-government receipts, higher real tax revenue and lower real revenue on the broader public-sector budget measure. It is not a uniform rise across public finances, and the preliminary nine-month figures do not establish the outcome for the full year.

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