New Zealand recorded a provisional net migration gain of 22,600 people in the year to September 2026, as an increase in arrivals and a decrease in departures lifted the balance from a gain of 9,900 in the previous September year.
The estimate represents the difference between migrant arrivals and migrant departures over the 12-month period. It is 12,700 higher than the latest estimate for the year to September 2025, but it remains subject to revision as more information about travellers becomes available.
There were an estimated 136,100 migrant arrivals in the latest year, up 7 per cent on the preceding year, and 113,500 migrant departures, down 3 per cent. These are estimates of people changing their country of residence, rather than counts of all passengers entering or leaving the country.
Different balances by citizenship
The overall gain combines a net gain of 60,400 people who were not New Zealand citizens with a net loss of 37,800 New Zealand citizens. A net loss means that more people in the group left as migrants than arrived as migrants; it does not mean that every citizen who left moved permanently or that citizens did not return.
For New Zealand citizens, the estimates show 26,700 migrant arrivals and 64,500 migrant departures during the year. For non-New Zealand citizens, there were an estimated 109,500 migrant arrivals and 49,000 departures. Individual published figures are rounded, so arithmetic using those rounded components may not reproduce every published total exactly.
The balance for non-citizens was higher than the estimated gain of 49,200 in the year to September 2025. The net loss of New Zealand citizens was lower than the estimated loss of 39,300 in that earlier year.
Citizens of India, China, the Philippines and Sri Lanka made the largest contributions to the net gain among non-New Zealand citizens, according to the national statistics agency. Its citizenship figures use the nationality of the passport presented when arriving or departing, which is not necessarily the country where a person previously lived or will live next.
Young citizens leaving
Among New Zealand citizens aged 15 to 24, estimated migrant departures rose by 6 per cent to 15,800 in the September 2026 year. Arrivals and departures together produced a net loss of 11,500 for that age group, the largest net loss of any age group in the period.
The statistics agency said the rise in departures among young citizens was driven particularly by increases among 18- and 19-year-olds. The figures describe migration as measured over the period; they do not establish why each person left or whether an individual will eventually return.
In September 2026 alone, the provisional estimate showed a net migration gain of 3,500, with 11,200 migrant arrivals and 7,700 departures. The monthly figure covers a different period from the annual balance and should not be treated as an additional gain on top of the year’s total.
Why estimates change
Migration statistics use a 12-month threshold to distinguish a change of residence from other travel. Determining how to classify a border crossing can require up to 16 months of travel history. For recent periods, statisticians use a model while waiting for more information, then revise the estimates each month.
The agency puts a 95 per cent model confidence interval of plus or minus 1,500 around the latest annual net gain. That interval describes uncertainty in the model; it is not a limit on how much the estimate may change in later revisions.
For context, the average annual net migration gain for September years from 2002 to 2025 was 31,000. The agency’s series reached a peak gain of 133,700 in the year to October 2023. Neither comparison changes the central finding for the latest September year: the estimated balance was positive and higher than the revised estimate for the same period a year earlier.
