A new progression model under the Sentencing Act 2026 has begun in England and Wales, moving the automatic release point earlier for eligible people serving Standard Determinate Sentences and shifting them into intensive supervision in the community while they remain on licence. The government says the change is intended to help maintain prison capacity while keeping post-release controls in place.
What is changing
The progression model applies to a specific category of fixed-term prison sentence known as a Standard Determinate Sentence. These sentences have a definite end date and are divided between time in custody and time supervised in the community on licence.
Under the new approach, the balance changes for eligible prisoners. They spend less time in custody before entering an intensive licence phase in the community, followed by continued licence until the end of the sentence. The first tranche was scheduled for 1 October, with further phased cohorts to follow.
Independent reporting has estimated that about 700 eligible people were due to leave prisons on 1 October and roughly 2,550 by the end of the year. Those figures relate to the early roll-out and should not be read as a universal count of all future releases under the model.
The change is not the same as a sentence expiring. People released through the model remain subject to licence conditions, supervision and possible recall to custody if they cannot be safely managed in the community.
Who is in scope and who is excluded
The model does not apply to more serious sentence types. More than 18,000 people serving sentences such as life imprisonment, Extended Determinate Sentences, Sentences for Offenders of Particular Concern and other indeterminate sentences are already not eligible.
There is also an offence-based exclusions list. Offences excluded from the progression model include rape, specified serious child-sex and grooming offences, offences related to unlawful killing, indecent assault and listed death-by-driving and death-by-cycling offences. The exclusions include offences under both historic and more recent legislation.
Eligibility is not always straightforward. Where someone is serving sentences for more than one offence, one sentence may be excluded while another is within scope. That means a release date can depend on the structure of the overall sentence and the specific offences involved, rather than on a single offence label alone.
How supervision will work
Those released under the progression model remain on licence and are supervised by the Probation Service. The intensive supervision stage includes regular appointments, risk assessments and monitoring of licence conditions. If licence conditions are breached, or if the person cannot be safely managed in the community, recall to custody can follow.
Probation practitioners can apply licence conditions where they are necessary and proportionate. These can include rules preventing contact with a victim or a victim’s family, requirements to live at a particular address, alcohol testing and restrictions on activities such as driving, attending public events or entering certain venues. For some serious sexual and violent offenders, additional restrictions may include areas they are not permitted to leave.
There is also a presumption that people released under the model will be electronically tagged unless tagging is unsuitable or inappropriate, such as where there is no fixed abode. Random drug testing may also take place for people on licence. The guidance separately describes additional measures for rape and certain child sexual offenders, including a presumption of GPS trail monitoring, while those offence categories are excluded from the progression model itself.
Victim information and support
Sentence recalculations are being carried out and can be complex, so affected victims may not receive immediate updates. Victims who are eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme and have opted in can receive information through their allocated liaison officer and may make representations about licence conditions, including exclusion zones or non-contact requirements.
A process has also been introduced for victims who are not eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme to request information about an offender. Where contact details are available, affected victims can be contacted to explain how they may seek information about their case.
The government says protecting victims remains a priority within the model and has announced an additional £18.9 million for victim-support services. The roll-out applies across England and Wales and represents a shift for prisons and probation services from custody to earlier community supervision for eligible cases. Individuals released under the progression model are not free from the sentence: they remain on licence, subject to conditions and at risk of recall until the sentence ends.
