Housing providers in England are planning £59 billion of repairs and maintenance over the five years from 2026-27 to 2030-31, while forecasting a modest rise in new-home delivery and a substantial increase in borrowing. The figures are plans rather than completed expenditure or guaranteed construction.
The Regulator of Social Housing’s 2026 financial forecasts, published on 6 October, draw on returns from 195 private registered providers that own or manage more than 1,000 social homes. Most returns were submitted in June 2026. The regulator says the plans indicate some stabilisation in the sector’s aggregate financial position, but also emphasises significant differences between providers.
Repair spending rises, but at a slower real rate
The £59 billion forecast for repairs and maintenance in the first five years is £4 billion, or 8 per cent, higher than in the previous set of plans. After adjusting for inflation, the increase is around 5 per cent. The regulator says the slower rate of real-terms growth may indicate that less new work is being identified; it does not establish that homes have fewer outstanding repair needs.
The aggregate covers routine and planned maintenance, major repairs and capitalised major repairs. Forecast spending is split broadly evenly between routine and planned maintenance and capitalised major repairs, at £27 billion each, with £5 billion for major repairs. These are sector-wide projections, not an allocation to individual landlords or a record of money already spent.
Providers forecast 285,000 home completions over the five-year period, 11,000 or 4 per cent above their previous plans. That remains below the 292,000 homes in the 2023-24 forecasts. Within the current total, plans shift towards social rent: general-needs social-rent development rises by 37,000 homes against the previous forecasts, while affordable-rent development falls by 29,000.
Looking across ten years of the Social and Affordable Homes Programme, providers’ plans include 434,000 social homes, including low-cost home ownership, a 27 per cent increase on the previous forecasts. Much of the rise is in later years and is not contractually committed: the share committed falls sharply beyond the first two forecast years. The regulator notes that programme funding decisions were made after most plans had been submitted, so future returns may change as providers learn the results of their bids.
Borrowing and grant underpin ambitions
To finance development and other investment, providers forecast £54.7 billion in new borrowing facilities over the first five years and a positive net movement of £16.3 billion in grant. The borrowing total includes refinancing facilities that mature, not only new money for additional construction. The regulator says £34.7 billion of loan repayments are also forecast during the period, implying at least £20 billion of net new borrowing for additional expenditure across the sector.
Total debt drawn and repayable is forecast to reach about £133 billion by 2031, compared with £124.2 billion in the previous plans for that year. The increase reflects, among other things, the funding needed for development included in the forecasts. It is not a prediction that all providers will borrow at the same rate or face identical financial pressure.
Aggregate interest cover for the first five years is 107 per cent, broadly similar to 106 per cent in last year’s forecasts, after a longer period of weakening. The regulator links the apparent stabilisation to a slowing rise in repairs expenditure and increased income growth. The aggregate can obscure weaker positions at individual landlords: the largest providers, those with more than 40,000 homes, generally have tighter finances, and their homes are more concentrated in London and the South East, where costs and building-safety work can be higher.
The regulator cautions that business plans were prepared in early 2026 and do not fully reflect later global events, resulting inflation and interest-rate changes, or the outcomes of programme bids. Those factors could alter providers’ costs, income and delivery priorities. The forecasts are therefore a snapshot of assumptions and intentions, not a settled account of future spending, completed homes or financial resilience.
