UN Trade and Development has published its 2026 economic outlook, projecting global growth of 2.6% this year, down from 2.9% in 2025. Its Trade and Development Report, presented in Geneva on 9 October, also forecasts growth of about 4% in goods and services trade at constant prices. The assessment describes an expanding world economy facing an energy shock, shifting trade relationships and widening gaps between economies.
Developing economies as a group are projected to grow by 4% this year, compared with 4.7% in 2025. Asia is forecast to contribute 59% of global growth. The country projections include growth of 7.3% for India, 4.5% for China and 5.2% for Indonesia. These are estimates within the new outlook, not final measurements of the year’s economic performance.
Trade growth and price pressures
Global trade reached an estimated record value of $35 trillion in 2025. The 2026 forecast of roughly 4% growth is a constant-price measure covering goods and services. It is therefore different from a change in the dollar value of trade. A larger financial total does not by itself establish a comparable increase in the quantity of goods and services exchanged, particularly when energy and other prices are rising.
The outlook’s analysis of trade relationships includes an estimated fall of more than 20% in trade between China and the United States since 2024, alongside increased East Asian trade with China and North America. Export controls, investment screening and supply-chain requirements are among the policy pressures affecting strategic sectors. These shifts concern the pattern of trade and investment, rather than a claim that global trade has stopped.
Energy costs and development finance
The assessment identifies an energy shock following conflict in the Middle East as a pressure on growth. Its account includes a rise in Brent crude from around $70 a barrel to more than $110 in the weeks after the conflict began. Those prices describe the episode examined in the outlook, not a live oil-market quote or a forecast of where oil prices will end the year.
Higher energy costs can weigh on import-dependent economies and poorer households, alongside borrowing costs and changes in capital flows. The exposure is not uniform: a global outlook does not establish that every country or household will experience the same effect. Differences in energy supplies, financial conditions and domestic policies remain relevant to how those pressures develop.
Official development assistance is projected to fall by almost 7% in 2026, potentially marking a third consecutive annual decline. The assessment also identifies financial-stability risks around the artificial-intelligence investment boom and market exposure concentrated in a limited number of companies. AI-related goods, including chips and servers, feature in its analysis of merchandise trade, but the anticipated gains are not presented as automatically delivering broad development benefits.
Investment patterns and policy choices
The outlook estimates that developed economies captured about 70% of announced greenfield projects in high-value strategic sectors between 2020 and 2025. Such announcements concern planned new investment projects, rather than proving that every project has been completed. The assessment distinguishes access to resources from participation in higher-value stages of production, with local capabilities and supplier relationships among the development issues it examines.
Its policy recommendations include diversification of trade and energy sources, stronger domestic capabilities and coordination of industrial, financial and technology policies. Links between investment and local suppliers, together with regional markets, form part of that proposed approach. These are recommendations within an economic assessment, not measures already adopted by governments or guarantees of a particular result.
For London, the outlook forms part of the international environment facing finance, commodities and trade-related services. The city’s businesses and investors operate across markets exposed to changes in output, energy costs and supply chains. No separate London growth forecast accompanies these global figures, and they do not establish a specific effect on the capital’s economy.
The 2.6% global growth projection and roughly 4% real trade forecast remain estimates for 2026. Their eventual accuracy will depend on developments in energy prices, conflict-related risks, trade policy and investment. The assessment’s emphasis is on uneven growth and differing exposures, rather than a single outcome shared by all economies.
