Barking and Dagenham councillors have noted a forecast £20.5 million overspend on the council’s general fund and approved movements in reserves after considering the authority’s financial position for 2026/27.
The forecast is based on the position at the end of September and was considered at a cabinet meeting on 10 November. It is an estimate of the position at the end of the financial year, not a final account of what has been spent. Some of the underlying care figures were already public before the meeting.
The council expects net general fund expenditure of £286.8 million against a budget of £266.3 million, after planned reserve transfers and management actions included in the forecast. The financial year runs to the end of March 2027, and the eventual outturn could differ from the September estimate.
Care services account for the largest pressures
Children’s care and support is forecast to be £13 million over budget. The council attributes the pressure chiefly to the cost of placements, including the difficulty of finding suitable places for children with complex needs. It recorded 31 children coming into care since April 2026.
The children’s forecast takes account of centrally held growth funding and a reduction in costs associated with young people moving into adult services. The council says information about those transitions remains subject to review.
Adult care and support is forecast to be £9.7 million over budget. The council identifies sustained demand and rising costs for people with complex needs, particularly in residential, nursing and supported living placements. It also describes pressures from changes to care packages and the costs of supporting more working-age adults.
Those two forecasts alone add up to more than the overall general fund overspend. They are partly offset by forecast underspends elsewhere. The council reports, for example, that a reduction in its employer pension contribution is expected to produce a £3.7 million underspend within central expenses.
Housing is also under pressure. The council forecasts a £2.6 million overspend in that service, largely linked to demand for temporary accommodation. It says 72 more clients than budgeted were in more expensive forms of accommodation at the end of September, alongside delays affecting the availability of other property.
Reserve movements and further checks
At the meeting, cabinet approved reserve movements totalling £15.9 million, including a transfer relating to the dedicated schools grant deficit. That total is not a statement that £15.9 million will be used to cover the general fund overspend: it includes different movements for different purposes.
The £20.5 million forecast already takes planned transfers and identified management actions into account. The council says using reserves can provide temporary funding, but does not resolve recurring pressures. It also warns that further increases in demand-led costs, unexpected spending or income shortfalls could worsen the position.
Officials are reviewing service budgets line by line to test the pressures and assumptions and consider possible efficiencies and cost reductions. The council says the findings will inform further action plans. It does not set out a final list of new service changes arising from that review.
On existing savings plans, the council says £1.9 million had been delivered by the end of September and £7.8 million was on track for delivery during the year. A further £0.6 million was off track but still expected to be delivered if mitigating action succeeded; £0.2 million was considered unachievable in 2026/27.
The council monitors other budgets separately from the general fund. Its housing revenue account was forecast to break even at the same point. The report also forecast a £12.1 million in-year overspend within the high-needs block of the dedicated schools grant, primarily linked to demand for special educational needs and disabilities provision. That figure should not be added to the general fund forecast as though it were another item in the same total.
The cabinet also approved an extension of the enhanced fly-tipping and bulky waste trial to 31 March 2027. The estimated additional cost is £298,000, to be met from an underspend within the public realm service. The council says a later report will evaluate the trial and consider any ongoing proposals.
For residents, the figures show where the council expects the greatest pressure, rather than confirming a final bill or a settled set of reductions. The position will continue to be monitored as the year progresses, with the final outcome dependent on spending, income and any further action taken before year end.
