Zambia has set out a proposed path for faster economic growth over the next three years, placing a seven per cent average at the centre of its 2027–2029 Medium Term Budget Plan and 2027 Budget Green Paper. The document is a consultation framework for the next national budget, not a record of growth already achieved, and its figures should be read as official targets rather than guarantees.
The annual profile is deliberately uneven. Growth is projected at 6.0 per cent in 2027, rising to 7.5 per cent in 2028 and settling at 7.1 per cent in 2029. Taken together, those rates amount to roughly 6.9 per cent a year, which the government presents as an average of seven per cent. The current budget had projected 6.4 per cent for 2026, while a separate external projection for this year is materially lower at 4.3 per cent. That contrast underlines the scale of the acceleration envisaged in the new plan.
Turning stability into production
The policy shift follows Zambia’s external-debt restructuring and a period focused on stabilising key economic conditions. The new framework is intended to move the emphasis towards investment, production, exports, jobs and household incomes. Mining, energy and agriculture are identified as the principal sectors through which that change is expected to take place.
For mining, the plan points to further exploration, investment in existing and new operations, and a push for more processing of minerals including lithium, cobalt and nickel. In agriculture, it envisages higher productivity, more irrigation and mechanisation, alongside climate-resilient farming. Energy policy is framed around broadening generation and strengthening transmission links, while transport priorities include strategic trade corridors. These are directions for policy and investment; the Green Paper does not establish that the associated output and employment gains have yet been secured.
The government is also pursuing a new international financial programme before the end of 2026, after a previous US$1.7 billion arrangement ended in January. That remains an objective rather than a completed agreement. Its outcome, and the terms of any eventual programme, have not been set out in the budget consultation material.
Fiscal targets alongside the growth ambition
The framework couples the higher growth path with several numerical guardrails. It aims to keep inflation within a six to eight per cent band, retain international reserves above three months of import cover and raise domestic revenue to at least 22.8 per cent of gross domestic product by 2029. It also sets a ceiling of no more than 2.0 per cent of gross domestic product for net domestic borrowing.
Those aims matter because a growth target alone does not show how the state will finance higher spending or manage debt. The plan proposes stronger domestic revenue collection, review of tax incentives, wider use of simplified regimes for smaller businesses and artisanal mining, and action against tax evasion and smuggling. On spending, it envisages directing resources towards higher-impact priorities while maintaining social programmes and investment in roads, health, water, sanitation and rural electrification.
The government has acknowledged risks from climate change, geopolitical tension, lower-than-expected revenue and rising spending demands. Those pressures could affect the pace at which investment is mobilised and projects are delivered. Equally, the forecast depends on developments in commodity-producing sectors and on the broader investment environment, neither of which is assured by the publication of a plan.
Consultation before the 2027 budget
The Green Paper is intended to invite scrutiny before the 2027 National Budget is finalised. Businesses, civil-society groups, professional bodies, researchers, development partners and members of the public have been asked to submit recommendations by 9 October. That process may refine the revenue, expenditure and growth assumptions before the final budget is presented.
For now, the significance of the document is its direction of travel: Zambia is setting a more ambitious post-restructuring growth path, while tying it to targets for inflation, reserves, tax collection and borrowing. Whether the country reaches the proposed 2027–2029 rates will depend on implementation, financing, economic conditions and the eventual budget measures rather than on the targets alone.
