More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories live in areas where unusually wet or dry conditions are forecast between October and December 2026 as the 2026–27 El Niño develops. The estimate highlights where children may face heightened weather-related risks. It is not a prediction that all those children will suffer harm, nor a count of children already affected.
The analysis identifies different regional patterns: it estimates 190 million children in Asia and the Pacific in areas forecast to experience unusual rainfall, 41 million each in East and Southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, 22 million in Europe and Central Asia, and 20 million in each of the Middle East and North Africa and West and Central Africa.
A map of exposure, not a tally of impacts
The figures combine a September seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with child-population data from WorldPop. The analysis also uses the historical El Niño rainfall footprint developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Children were counted in places where the seasonal outlook and that historical pattern both point to wetter- or drier-than-average conditions.
The threshold is important: the estimate includes locations where unusual conditions have a 70 per cent probability of occurring. UNICEF says it checked the forecasting system against 24 years of satellite rainfall observations to identify areas where it has demonstrated skill in seasonal precipitation forecasting.
Even with those steps, this is a broad-scale estimate. The forecast grid is about 110 kilometres across, so the totals cannot identify precisely which neighbourhoods, communities or individual children will face a particular hazard. Forecast confidence varies between regions, and the underlying outlook may change as new information becomes available. The analysis reflects forecasts and conditions available in September.
That distinction separates exposure from impact. A child counted in a forecast area is not necessarily going to experience a flood, drought, illness, displacement or school closure. The figures identify where the chance of unusual rainfall is elevated and where related disruption may warrant attention; they do not measure how many children will ultimately be harmed.
Different regions face different rainfall risks
The analysis points to drier-than-usual conditions in places including Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines. If rainfall deficits lead to agricultural drought or water scarcity, families may face pressure on food and water supplies. Those are potential consequences, not outcomes established by the population estimate.
In the Greater Horn of Africa, including Somalia, the forecast signal is wetter than normal. Heavy rain can bring a different set of hazards, including river and flash flooding, water-borne disease and interruptions to education. In countries already affected by conflict and displacement, weather-related disruption can compound existing constraints on access to essential services. The forecast does not make a particular local event inevitable.
The regional totals are not directly comparable measures of severity: they count children living in broad areas with a forecast rainfall anomaly, rather than ranking expected damage or need. A large exposed population does not by itself show which place will experience the worst impacts. Local rainfall, vulnerability, infrastructure and the ability to maintain services all matter to what happens on the ground.
Why advance preparation matters
Seasonal forecasts can give governments and humanitarian organisations time to prepare before conditions peak. UNICEF is urging early investment, stronger climate-resilient systems, protection of essential services and humanitarian access to affected communities. For families, the value of those preparations would be practical: keeping water, health care, education and child-protection support operating through disruption.
UNICEF’s regional readiness work in Eastern and Southern Africa describes measures including pre-positioning supplies, strengthening outbreak readiness and child protection, and planning continuity for health, water, education and protection services. It also identifies forecast triggers for anticipatory action and shock-responsive social protection, including anticipatory cash support. These are preparedness measures, not evidence that every exposed location has already received assistance.
The scale of the global estimate is a reason to pay attention, but its proper use is as a planning signal rather than a verdict about individual children. The forecast can help decision-makers identify places to monitor and prepare for a range of possibilities. As the outlook is updated, regional and local information will be needed to turn a broad seasonal signal into decisions suited to particular communities.
